Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 118.792123 136.668558 156.981289 181.907550 211.856168 246.913047 291.395946
2025-12-14 96.352337 119.045728 147.230265 185.302116 236.154550 302.855479 398.865346
2025-12-21 81.445543 105.833452 138.119782 184.945756 252.765623 350.114399 505.620659
2025-12-28 74.719041 101.341216 138.573739 196.061768 285.647187 425.504632 672.572593
2026-01-04 68.916698 96.860721 137.786820 204.465806 315.275887 501.897149 864.099146
2026-01-11 63.853084 92.531395 136.246005 210.926589 342.437942 579.992192 1084.344804
2026-01-18 58.975705 87.731612 133.103594 213.907068 363.761786 652.345154 1319.118937
2026-01-25 54.340771 82.687106 128.776306 213.924942 379.345206 717.138239 1562.380736
2026-02-01 49.577193 76.872546 122.382605 209.116052 384.478105 761.435045 1774.760868
2026-02-08 45.404796 71.595587 116.259636 203.813122 387.441547 801.543709 1993.711964
2026-02-15 41.856784 67.025999 110.849347 199.037562 390.494590 842.510764 2234.230726
2026-02-22 41.109695 67.224797 114.006895 211.627893 434.081870 994.856257 2900.702081
2026-03-01 38.928855 64.746537 112.077520 213.835424 455.283387 1098.886397 3484.769153
2026-03-08 37.203925 62.938616 111.230510 218.260813 483.054852 1231.646336 4281.512298
2026-03-15 35.123042 60.272727 108.404802 217.882659 498.682435 1334.669354 5045.168815
2026-03-22 34.633656 60.565984 111.511980 231.499372 554.772223 1589.056611 6783.332844
2026-03-29 33.823348 60.151832 113.102717 241.811858 604.643099 1846.956028 8890.816386
2026-04-05 32.845123 59.309548 113.683329 249.752008 649.913790 2111.805821 11465.264327
2026-04-12 31.590578 57.796715 112.642731 253.418709 683.201195 2347.841531 14277.233674
2026-04-19 30.161634 55.807291 110.341753 253.440726 704.935887 2547.785394 17223.210078
2026-04-26 28.428709 53.053843 106.059099 247.526011 705.431553 2653.358088 19557.247920
2026-05-03 26.794171 50.395096 101.762806 241.011084 702.525220 2743.422791 21984.112133
2026-05-10 25.331996 48.004202 97.882124 235.150854 700.753070 2840.354014 24787.867051